I downloaded more recent Moscow Covid-19 data from the following website. There's a drop-down menu in the plot of the data that will permit access to a table containing the data.
https://коронавирус-сегодня.рф/россия/москва/
The number of cases didn't behave as expected. The plot of d(lnI)/dt no longer appears to cross the horizontal axis and the peak appears to be a little farther off.
The data was more difficult to fit due to fluctuations.
The data consists of the blue points partially hidden by the red fitted curve. The data deviates slightly from the SIR model at the end.
The initial point in time, t=0, corresponds to Mar. 15, 2020.
Supplemental (May 23): The error in the peak was due to the wrong formula for I0. That's been corrected and the fit images above have been replaced. I also changed the I data to new cases minus recovered minus deaths. It would be best if this fit was checked more thoroughly.
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