Fitting a fifth degree polynomial to the rate of change, dK/dt, gave an even better fit to the CA Covid-19 Data. The coefficients of the powers of K were,
The resulting fits were,
Unfortunately, the signs of the lower order terms did not permit an estimate of the SIR model parameters.
Supplemental (Oct 22): It's doubtful this fit would make a good predictor over the long term since it is subject to errors near the end.
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