Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Peak Magnitude for Recent CA-NV Earthquakes (corrected)

I rechecked my calculations today after noticing that an M 3.4 earthquake appeared to be missing and made some changes to the program which optimized the fit. I got a slightly better result and found that the best fit was for a peak magnitude of M 1.08 which is surprisingly close to the earlier prediction based on global earthquakes. The M3.4 error was a result of using the wrong magnitudes for the data in the plot.

At first glance it seems that there are many more points of the histogram below the fitted curve than above it but it should be remembered that the number of earthquakes associated with each point is N_k = 10^logN_k.

(Apparently, I am not at my best at 2 am in the morning.)

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