Tuesday, February 17, 2015
Plot of the Global Ocean Anomaly from 1880 to 2014
I computed a similar forecast for the global ocean temperature anomaly using data from Jan 1880 to the Aug 2013 and got similar results. The monthly data used, 20 year averages, fit and error bounds are shown in red and the additional data to the end of 2014 is in blue.
The actual anomaly data looks more like a random walk in this case and there is a more pronounced decrease in the projected temperature anomaly. It remains to be seen how reliable the prediction is. The global ocean anomaly appears to be much more stable than the global land anomaly.