Monday, November 16, 2015

The Global Ocean Anomaly and Its Rate of Change

  One can do a similar comparison of polynomial predictors for the global ocean temperature anomaly and the results are not much better even if one bases the prediction on a 100 year interval which better constrains the higher order polynomials.

If one starts with the global ocean anomaly for 1880.0 and asks what slope is the best predictor of the change in the anomaly one gets a surprisingly low value of 1.5 °C per 1000 years as these least squares fits show.

Since the mean temperature estimates indicate that the average for the twentieth century is 13.9 °C one would expect much of the world's oceans to be near freezing about 9000 years ago.

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