Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Trapazoid Fit For the Equinox Time Deviations

  Just got through doing a rough trapazoidal fit of the deviations in the time of the Spring Equinox.

This fit uses the MICA times of the 251 Spring Equinoxes from 1800 through 2050. We probably shouldn't take the trapazoidal distribution too seriously but it may be wise to keep an open mind about the actual shape of the distribution. The minimum error was for a=2.05 min and b=15.15 min. The statistics hint that a slight deviation from the mean time is the most probable situation.

Supplemental (Apr 19): This fit ended up somewhat off the mark due to an error in evaluating the probability for the histogram intervals. I found the error in data used last night and corrected it in the next blog. Here too I had problems in choosing a good value for b.

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