Saturday, October 5, 2013
Comparison Of The Fit Projections With The Anomaly Data
Combining both anomaly fit projections from the 20-year average curve with the original land northern hemisphere anomaly data allows us to compare what's currently happening with the projections. Deviation of the projection from the data too far from the center of the data would exclude the projection from consideration.
The data may already be favoring the fit with the two sinusoidal terms since the fit with the cubic polynomial is starting to deviate from the center of the data. The 5-year average indicated a slight decrease at towards the end. We should have a better idea of what is happening in a decade or so.
Not everything is of consequence when it comes to long term global warming. Damped random fluctuations would not be of any consequence nor would the sinusoidal oscillations. A linear or cubic term would be of consequence. The linear term appears to be about a 1 degree rise per century.
Supplemental (Oct 6): The two fits may represent the extremes in what can happening with the first being rapid global warming and the second an historical pattern. If the anomaly levels off we may see a repeat of what happened between 1880 and 1920. The anomaly may take a middle path between the two projections indicated if there is a fair amount of "unnatural" global warming taking place. The two fits represent simple solutions but the actual case may prove to be more complicated.