Monday, October 7, 2013

Monthly Land-Ocean Anomaly Projection

  One can do a similar fit for NOAA's monthly land-ocean temperature anomaly for both hemispheres. I included some of the unsmoothed 20-year average anomaly in the fit to increase the number of years of data included and so the resulting rms error was a little higher for the best fit. The form for the function chosen was a linear term plus the sinusoidal term and a second harmonic.

It definitely indicates a decrease in the anomaly and a repeat of what happened between 1880 and 1920. Again the damped random walk and the oscillation are inconsequential to long term global warming. The linear term indicates only a 0.52 degree rise per century. It looks like we have reached a turning point in the temperature anomaly.

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