Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Confidence Intervals for Projections and Their Statistics

  With the projections and new data we are likely to have fewer observations to work with. Ten years after a projection we will have 120 months of anomaly data and we can use the binomial distribution to check the counts. For better statistics we can use the 1σ outliers and for the 3 harmonic fit of the global land anomaly evaluating the probability integral indicates q = 0.259. For the binomial distribution we get the following results.

For the 2σ q = 0.0585 and for 3σ q = 0.0112 so one will get fewer outliers.

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